Real Scientists/Science & Climate Change

Below you will find a column as to the application of real science, by real scientists, to such questions as predicting climate change.

Perhaps Al Gore can add an asterisk to his Noble Peace Prize listing to match the one as to his claim of "inventing the Internet".




December 16, 2007
22 UN climate models flunk
James Lewis
Prediction is hard, especially about the future, said Neils Bohr. So why not try to predict the past? A study in the Royal Metereological Society journal did just that, focusing on the best available evidence of the past 25 years. Measuring instruments have improved immensely in accuracy and coverage in recent decades, using satellites, weather balloons and surface sensors.

Alas, all 22 math models use by the United Nations failed to predict the last twenty-five years.

"The usual discussion is whether the climate model forecasts of Earth's climate 100 years or so into the future are realistic," said the lead author, Dr. David H. Douglass from the University of Rochester. "Here we have something more fundamental: Can the models accurately explain the climate from the recent past? It seems that the answer is no."

"The 22 climate models used in this study are the same models used by the UN Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC), which recently shared a Nobel Peace Prize with former Vice President Al Gore."

"We suggest ... that projections of future climate based on these models should be viewed with much caution," said Dr. Fred Singer from the University of Virginia.

And give back that Nobel Peace Prize, would you, Al? We demand a recount!

James Lewis blogs at http://www.dangeroustimes.wordpress.com/